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Oil markets are going through a period of extraordinary change as the United States is increasingly leading the expansion of global oil supplies, and demand is shifting from developed economies and transportation fuels to Asia and petrochemicals.

Oil Jpg

Key findings

The outlook for oil demand varies dramatically depending on scenario

Under the Stated Policies Scenario, oil use in passenger cars peaks in the late 2020s and during the 2030s demand increases by only 0.1 mb/d on average each year. However there is no definitive peak in oil use overall, as there are continued increases in petrochemicals, trucks and the shipping and aviation sectors. In contrast, in the Sustainable Development Scenario, determined policy interventions lead to a peak in global oil demand within the next few years. Demand falls by more than 50% in advanced economies between 2018 and 2040 and by 10% in developing economies.

Global methane emissions from oil and gas operations in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2000-2030


Methane emissions from oil and gas remain high despite industry initiatives and government policies

Methane emissions from the oil and gas sector reached close to 80 Mt (or 2.4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent) in 2017. This is equal to 6% of global energy sector GHG emissions. Emissions remain high despite initial industry-led initiatives and government policies announced recently. Implementing abatement options quickly and at scale remains a real challenge. Policies will be critical to achieve the 75% emissions reduction by 2030 demonstrated in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Further innovation is needed both to increase understanding of emissions levels and to help reduce the cost of emissions mitigation strategies such as leak detection and repair.